|An Expert's Audit - May Edition||Tweet|
|An Expert's Audit|
|Written by Ian Fergusson|
|Thursday, 03 May 2012 22:32|
Dave Storey is a Nova Scotia lad with a team in a 15 team 7x7 roto keeper league. The league adds K’s, OPS, L’s and K/9 to the standard 5x5. The quirks to the league include a 35-transaction limit and a 2000 IP max for the season. I don’t know if you folks realize it but 2000 IP is a ton of IP. If you’re going to fill that out you’ll need to pretty much maximize your bench with SP’s worth starting and you could even consider streaming one pitcher on a weekly basis to cover a season’s worth of transactions.
At any rate, let’s take a look at Morning Wood. DUDE, put that away!
C Kurt Suzuki OAK – in a 15 team league you have a decent starter. Then again if you look at the bottom of the roster you’ll see you also have a superstar on your DL. This is an excellent start to the story.
1b Albert Pujols LAA – I know what you’re thinking dear reader, it’s nice to have an anchor like Albert for a fantasy team. Wait though, it gets better. He isn’t even the best player on this team.
2b Danny Espinosa WAS - after his first month he has wondrously disappointed. I expect production over a career in line with Dan Uggla but sometimes I wonder if we’ll end up with Moonlight Graham (don’t wink kid). I still figure that Espo and Lombardozzi will form the middle infield for the Nats for the next decade and they’ll ship Desmond elsewhere.
3b Aramis Ramirez MIL – solid option for close to 30 HR from the hot corner. He’s started off really slowly but that could just amount to the new environment he’s in this season. He’ll be what is expected of him over the course of the season but you’ll just have to show a little patience.
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI – man the Phillies offense is sure asleep without a couple key contributors in the middle of the lineup, eh? It’s still not unreasonable to expect close to 20 dingers and 30 stolen bags from J-Roll, and Hunter Pence has the skills to send him home more often.
LF Emilio Bonifacio MIA – I like this guy for his multi-positional eligibility and the fact that he’ll serve up 30-40 SB’s in a given year. Almost any hole that develops in your roster due to injury could be filled right back in by quite possibly the most versatile fantasy player in the game.
CF Matt Kemp LAD – he’s the best player in baseball right now. Everyone will want to acquire him from you and I’d still advise you to pass on every deal unless you get a couple kings' ransom in return. Seriously, I’d be asking for a 1st round hitter, a #1 starter and another keeper calibre player before I’d even think of trading Kemp at this stage.
RF Shin-Soo Choo CLE – given how the last calendar year has gone for him medically, I’m now wondering if we’ll ever see the return to the mix of power and speed that he provided in '09 and '10. When everything is going well for him he’s a 20/20 option with a distant shot at 30/30.
UT Jay Bruce CIN – he’s most of the offensive support for Votto in Cinci. One the great things about him is that he gets to play half his games in a bandbox so I’d happily take the extra power even if the average sometimes hovers around .250
SP Mat Latos CIN – I loved this guy in San Diego but Great American Ballpark is vastly different from PETCO. His last start at home against San Fran put him back on track after he got rocked in St Louis the start before that. I actually have few worries about what stats he’ll put up even if he stays healthy, but if he does stay healthy he’ll anchor your starting staff.
SP Brandon Morrow TOR – sometimes nobody can touch him and sometimes it's like he loses focus and even I could manage a dying quail or something. This season might just be a proving ground for him. He could turn into Cliff Lee or end up as A.J. Burnett.
RP Rafael Betancourt COL – at the time of this writing the Rocks have 12 wins and Raf has saved 6 of those games. He’s a solid closer option with a secure job. He won’t hurt you but he won’t be the next great closer either. You’re in good stead with him on the roster.
RP Sean Marshall CIN – you were obviously paying attention during spring training and you snapped him up when Madson went down. He’s another solid citizen but I think he’s got a shot at keeping the job for years going forward if Mad Dog doesn’t come back brilliantly.
P Frank Francisco NYM – now this guy I REALLY dislike as a closer option. The Jays pen last year blew 25 saves and while it's true that Francisco only blew 4 of those 25 saves I just can’t shake a general dislike of his talents. He consistently stinks. I’d find a way to move this guy out pretty quickly and thankfully we managed to get exactly that done before his first implosion of the season happened.
P Jim Johnson BAL – thank goodness the O’s finally went away from Kevin Gregg as a closer option, I can’t stand having that guy on my team either (hmm, it seems I have a hate on for former Jays). The lesser known JJ is another solid option who’ll put up decent stats for a team that is surprising me a good deal to start the season. Just go with it, who couldn’t use extra saves?
BN Daniel Hudson ARI – right now he’s hurt but he’s an excellent choice as your 2nd or 3rd SP. If he’s healthy he’ll put up 200 IP, around 15 wins while keeping the ratios where they should be. We’ll see how much success he’ll have after his shoulder boo-boo is dealt with. The hope is he'll be back sometime in May.
BN Trevor Cahill ARI - I have him on one of my own dynasty teams and quite frankly he doesn’t strike guys out enough, and he’s playing in a much more hitter friendly park than he did in Oakland. I had some nice hopes for him returning to his stats from two years ago as he moved to the NL and I do realize that it has only been a month for him in the desert but I’m really leaning toward putting him on the trade block. There is still a lot of trade interest around him in fantasy circles so I think both of us should take a long serious look into that option.
BN Jonathon Niese NYM – this kid’s breaking out and this is going to be a really nice season for him. If you were going to be trading for a SP in standard leagues then I think Niese is a great target. As for this team, resist most offers that come your way for him unless you’re blown away by it.
BN Erik Bedard PIT – he’s Canadian and we both grew up about an hour away from one another (although a decade apart, yeah I’m old) so I like that about him. The ratios are actually really good, he’s getting K’s but playing for the Bucs will mean that W’s are few and far between. The fact that wins will be scarce for him will mean that in my eyes he’s expendable.
BN J.D. Martinez HOU – this kid is fantastically positioned for a great year. There’s next to no offense in Houston so he’ll see a ton of time in the middle of the order and Carlos Lee will provide enough protection that teams will come right at J.D. and challenge him. I can see some big stats out of this kid for many years.
BN Mike Trout LAA –with all the recent buzz around Bryce Harper’s call-up this week, some guys forget that Trout is a more polished hitter at this stage. I can see some bigger short term stats for him although the longer term upside is going to go in Harper’s favour. Still, there’s 30/30 upside with Trout and that is such a rare feat that you can just rejoice in the promise that’s there.
DL Brett Anderson OAK – he had Tommy John surgery last summer and it'll be at the earliest July before he could possibly make a difference for a team but I’m ALWAYS hesitant when a pitcher has elbow surgery. He’s a LONG way from elite production and the most you can expect from him this season might be something close to average MLB production.
DL Victor Martinez DET – when he returns you’ll have a luxury in a decent backstop as your backup while V-Mart produces like few in the game. When that time comes I suggest you shop Suzuki for a pitcher. This is a 15 team league after all.
Given the fact that there’s no way that you’ll fill in 2000 IP with 6 SP’s and 4 RP’s then I’ll suggest you prune down your hitting bench and add a couple SP’s to your bench by trade or the wire. You do have a transaction limit for the season but you could certainly afford a transaction a week if you wished to troll the wire for two start pitchers or viable regular options. However, we soon found that there wasn’t a lot of pitching on the wire to go after. As for trading options we figured that Shin-Soo Choo was the most expendable trading chip so that you could get a kid like J.D. Martinez or Mike Trout into your regular starting lineup.
Waiver Wire Options
Juan Nicasio COL – he has 3 QS’s out of his 5 starts so far this season and his ratios were only rocked because of one 2.2 IP, 6 ER start against the D-Backs. He’s getting decent K’s and going deep into games. I like him as a dark horse option for some decent stats this season.
Mat Gamel MIL – there’s 20 HR upside here who’ll get 500 AB’s for the Crew (Ed. Note - the ACL tear occurred after this was submitted ... maybe next year, Gamel.)
Gaby Sanchez MIA – essentially he’s sitting in the same chair as Gamel; he’ll get plenty of AB’s and he has 20 HR power that could be valuable to any team.
Jose Altuve HOU – he’ll provide avg to a fantasy team but that’s about it. I really like him as a hitter in the real game but I just think he might turn into Placido Polanco in the fantasy game.
Dayan Viciedo CWS – he’s built like a tank and if he ever puts it all together I think there’s 30 HR power to be found. So far this season he has slumped and slept his way along but there's still opportunity there for him to take and run with.
You traded Daniel Hudson, Shin-Soo Choo and Frank Francisco for John Lester, Austin Jackson and Javy Guerra – essentially you got a stud pitcher, an upgrade for saves and a decent bench outfielder for an expendable outfielder, a closer neither of us could stand and a decent pitcher with some injury issues. I love that you landed Lester in this deal, his struggles this season are not going to continue and he is definitely one of the top 10 SP’s in the game. From my perspective you won on all three players you moved out in this deal.
There are actually some decent options for you with the sticks but unfortunately it's the arms where you need the most help. A 2000 IP max is a monster total so you could consider a streaming option for two start pitchers on a weekly basis, if you can find viable options on the wire. The trade you made was wonderful and I figure you upgraded at all three roster spots. From here on out it’ll be a matter of trolling the wire for SP’s to stream and maybe look to deal a bench stick for another viable arm. We did have some brief trade discussions with a guy who wanted to trade for Kemp but I flat out admit that when I trade one of the best players in the game then I ask for the world in return so since he wasn’t willing to give up the world then negotiations didn’t go very far at all. By the way, if you’re ever trading the best player in a deal you had better be getting the world back - otherwise, pass.
Well, that was a good few weeks of baseball talk there, Dave. Any questions or any advice you need I’m only an email or an IM away.
See you all next month. If you want your own team looked at then fire off an email asap.
|Last Updated on Saturday, 05 May 2012 10:10|